Chasing Stars: The Analyst Playbook for Winning Votes追逐明星：分析师赢得选票的制胜指南

光华讲坛——社会名流与企业家论坛第6763期

主题：Chasing Stars: The Analyst Playbook for Winning Votes追逐明星：分析师赢得选票的制胜指南

主讲人：马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校曼宁商学院 张驰副教授

主持人：会计学院 金智教授

时间：6月17日15:00-17:00

地点：柳林校区诚正楼650会议室

主办单位：会计学院 科研处

主讲人简介：

张驰于天普大学福克斯商学院获得博士学位，现任马萨诸塞大学洛厄尔分校曼宁商学院金融系助理教授。张教授的研究兴趣包括高管薪酬、企业创新、证券分析师、卖空与工作场所安全。张教授的研究成果发表在Journal Accounting Research、Management Science、Contemporary Accounting Research、Journal of Business Ethics、Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Journal of Corporate Finance、Journal of Accounting and Public Policy、Journal of Financial Markets、Financial Management、Journal of Empirical Finance、The Financial Review等国际知名期刊。

内容提要：

The Star Analyst competition offers a coveted opportunity for career advancement and alleviating career concerns. In 2019, Institutional Investor magazine replaced AUM-based vote weighting by commission-based vote weighting. Leveraging this major rule change as an exogenous shock, analysts strategically shift to issue more optimistic forecasts for the holdings of high-commission funds in a manner that is consistent with an attempt to gain favor from voting managers. This strategic optimism is not a correction from conservatism, as their earnings forecast fail to align with actual earnings and instead lead to larger forecast errors. Cross-sectional results show that analysts from large brokerage house display lower levels of strategic optimism, while the optimism is disproportionately stronger toward large firms. Additional analysis reveals that analysts maintain similar forecast frequency but issue quicker optimistic forecasts for target firms. This lectures focus on the issue that analysts employ strategic optimism to curry favor with fund managers in an effort to win votes.

《明星分析师》评选为分析师职业晋升和缓解职业焦虑提供了宝贵契机。2019年，《机构投资者》杂志用基于佣金的投票权重取代了基于资产管理规模（AUM）的投票权重。利用这一重大规则变化作为外生冲击，分析师会策略性地转而对高佣金基金的持仓发布更乐观的预测，这与试图获得投票经理的青睐是一致的。这种策略性的乐观主义并不是对保守主义的修正，因为他们的盈利预测不仅没有与实际盈利一致，反而导致了更大的预测误差。横截面结果表明，来自大型券商公司的分析师表现出较低的策略性乐观程度，而对大型公司的策略性乐观程度更高。进一步分析的研究结论还表明分析师保持着类似的预测频率，但会对目标公司发布更快的乐观预测。本次讲座主要探讨了分析师利用策略性乐观主义来迎合基金经理，以此作为获取投票支持的竞逐策略问题。